Vuelta brings the Grand Tour season to an end

This past weekend saw the conclusion of the Vuelta a España.  This closes the door on the section leg of the cycling season.  The first section, Spring Classics, seem so long ago.  Now the hard men of the Spring return to close out our season with the Fall Classics and the World Championships. 

All in all, I think this season is shaping up to be a success.  Most of the press reports have focused on the races and riders actions within those races.  The only detours have occurred when personality clashes found their way into the headlines. 

I’d rather read about ego clashes between two great riders vying for control of a team than two organizations vying for control of cycling.  So in summary, cycling’s glass is half full.  That’s not to say that everything is just great in cycling.  The Vuelta presented us with a glimpse of why constant vigilance is needed.   

First, you have the return of AlexanderVinokourov to the peloton.  Getting absolution from his home country/team to ride again, he came back to top level racing.  It also seems that two years as a cycling’s outcast did nothing to humble the Kazak rider.  Fortunately, he was never a factor before exiting due to fatigue.  Hmm.  How ironic.

The winner was, until recently, Spain’s favorite son.  On one hand it was good to see Alejandro Valverde fulfill his potential as a Grand Tour rider.  It was looking clear that a three week race is a bit too long for a man that was once labeled invincible.  On the other hand, I’ve stopped wishing for Valverde to fulfill his potential after CONI released their information.

Between the two extremes, I loved watching the next generation have at it.  As most of the top names are beginning to wind their season down, those who labored in their shadows are getting some time in the sun. Men such as Lars Boom, Philip Deignan, and Anthony Roux.  This is what cycling is all about.

Skil-Shimano first to fold

You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you’re sittin at the table.
There’ll be time enough for countin when the dealin’s done. – Kenny Rogers, The Gambler

With seven ProTour licenses up for grabs, the stakes are pretty high.  Around the table competing were incumbents Cofidis, AG2R, BBox Bouygues Telecom, Lampre and Milram.  As the locals settled into their seats, the sound of distant hoofbeats caused heads to turn towards the swinging doors.  Riding into town were some high rollers.  

The swinging doors creaked open with the first high roller.  Scott Sunderland of Team Sky.  Scott carries the bankroll of none other than Rupert Murdoch himself.  The doors to the saloon had not yet ceased swinging when John LeLangue entered the room.  John had just won a big three way tournament with Bob Stapleton and Johan Bruyneel and walked away with the George Hincapie trophy.  He was looking to extend his lucky streak at these tables for his BMC team.  Whispers began about his chummy relationship with ASO.  Was a back room deal cut? 

There was not enough time to conclude this conversation when a nervous hush fell across the room. All had heard the distinctive sounds of spurs against the wooden porch outside.  Several folks looked nervously at the Marshall sitting at the bar.  Marshall Pat McQuaid subconsciously touched his six shooter.  No comfort was derived by finding it in the holster. Although the setting sun would only allow a silhouette to be seen, they all knew who had entered.  The Boss was playing this hand himself on behalf of his Radio Shack team.

Big Tex looked over at the Marshall and asked “Did you bring the licenses?” The Marshall opened his vest to reveal seven slips of paper.  With a wry smile, Lance Armstrong turned to the dealer and said “Deal. I think the game is Texas Hold ‘Em.”

Skil-Shimano,which was able to ride in the Tour de France this year as a wildcard, looked around the table and threw in their cards. 

Will Greg LeMond shut up?

Bitter at anyone who shows greatness, Greg LeMond seethes bitterness at his new target, Alberto Contador. Looking at the final climb of Mt. Verbier.

“Never has a rider in the Tour climbed so fast.”

Where does he get his opinion?  LeMond takes some postulations from Antoine Vayer, former Festina Trainer.  The face that Vayer clearly states that he makes a significant number of assumptions in his calculations  did not sway the former Tour Champ.

“Contador would have needed a VO2 max  of 99.5 ml/mn/kg to produce such an effort. To my knowledge this figure has never been achieved by any athlete in any sport. It is a bit like if you took a nice Mercedes out of the car showroom, lined it up on a Formula 1 circuit and won the race. There is something that is wrong. It would be interesting to know what is under the bonnet.”

The Science of Sport outlines these assumptions (including a big assumption of a 490 watt output) and how any conclusions made from watching TV are not worth the paper they are written on.  From article:

Last week, we looked at Contador’s climbing rate (VAMs) and using Michele Ferrari’s formula, arrive at a power output of 6.78 W/kg, or 420W.

Alex Simmons very kindly provided some calculations for the climb, given the speed and gradient, and he arrived at a value of 422 W. He went on to show that if you assume even a small following wind, this power output drops to 397W.

Using the same principles, but making more “aggressive” assumptions, I have calculated the power output at around 440 W - this is an upper end, call it the “worst case scenario”, because I think Alex has pretty much arrived at the accurate figures using his equations (which match the estimation of the Ferrari equations based on VAMs)

Given the seriousness of doping allegations, you better be damn sure of your facts Mr. LeMond.  You are the first to sue based on baseless allegations.  You of all people should understand the damage you can do by lobbing these type of grenades.

Let the bidding begin

With this Tour all but over, it is clear that the boys from Astana will part ways just as fast as they can pack and catch a taxi to the airport.  Lance will go to Radio Shack (I’m sorry with all due respect to the electronics company, I’m having trouble with this one) Johan will probably follow.  I expect Johan to pack a few other Astana riders with him on his flight to the US.

The question on everyone’s lips is where will Alberto Contador end up?  We heard the strong rumors of home team Caisse d’Epargne before the Tour.  Even Jonathan Vaughters was rumored to be negotiating with the Spanish rider.  One thing is for sure, with his palmares, there will not be a shortage of suitors for the best Grand Tour rider in the game today.  The question will move from who to how much? 

Starting a cycling team?  Better go back to your sponsor for some more cash and get ready for the biggest auction cycling has seen in a while!

You can’t beat Father Time

The 2009 Tour de France has become one of those events that has permanently etched itself in my memory.  It is one of those events where I will remember every detail of my life during these three weeks.

This tour will etch itself forever as the Tour of Transition.  The Tour where the heroes of yesterday pass the torch to the heroes of tomorrow.  It is tough to see Lance Armstrong left behind by an acceleration.  He still has the strength and stamina but as they say, he lost that first step.  As we know in cycling, the key is getting the gap in those precious few seconds at the start of an acceleration.

There is absolutely no equivalent comparator in all of sports to getting dropped in cycling.  It is the cruelest and most visible form of sporting Darwinism.  We have all felt it.  You desperately try to hold the wheel in front of you.  Then a space of two to three feet opens between you and the rider in front of you and you know what is coming.  Immediately after, the world knows too.  “Look, he’s getting dropped!”

Lance Armstrong got dropped by the most relentless of competitors, Father Time himself.    Not content on taking Lance from our midst but he seems to have picked up Geroge Hincapie in his broom wagon.  George sounded very melancholy after losing on what is probably his last chance to wear a Yellow Jersey.

There was  one rider who I thought had the best chance of winning his race against time.  I can picture his familiar grimace while trying to stoke his big diesel engine to outrun the scythe wielding specter.  Father Time had to take out the rear wheel of Jens Voigt in order to end his Tour.  It may be the last time we see Jens at the head of the peloton.

I have hope that the next generation of cyclists will do Lance, George, and Jens proud.  Andy Schleck, Vincenzo Nibali, Jurgen Van den Broeck, and of course Alberto Contador should do OK.  I look forward to many exciting years ahead.

Two-thirds through and what do we know

The Tour de France organizers stacked the deck for the last week so before the fireworks begin tomorrow, let’s take a look at where we are.

Meet the new boss.  Same as the old boss.

As the kilometers go by, Lance is looking more and more like he never lost a step, er stroke.  He looks strong in the mountains, mostly. He also is acting like the leader of Astana, not a leader of Astana.  Listen to Lance’s measured reaction after Contador’s attack on the Arcalis.  Compare that to the same parental tone he had in previous Tours when he was disappointed in his team.  It also seems that in the battle for team support, the deck is stacked in Lance’s favor.  Lance suffered a big setback when Leipheimer broke his wrist and was forced to abandon.

To win, Lance needs to keep Contador close tomorrow.  Someone, probably Schleck will attack.  Be first on the wheel.  Even if Contador follows, you stay together.  Second, ride like the wind in the final TT.  Channel your past Tour TTs to grab yellow at this critical juncture.  You need to be in yellow at the base of the Ventoux.  If not, all bets are off.

Et tu Brute?

Johan Bruyneel knows that he has the two strongest riders in the Tour.  Any doubts about Lance Armstrong are gone.  Externally, no contender has stepped up to challenge the team and its two men.  Evans and Menchov have fallen away.  Only Andy Schleck has stayed around this long.  His problem is he can’t stay too much longer.  With the TT ahead, he needs to begin to ride like he is 1:30 – 2:00  behind because he is.  I can even see a scenario where Schleck loses three minutes in the TT.

With two riders on the same team that can win the tour, the decision falls to the Director.  Johan has to decide who he will make king.  While it is not a no-brainer, it is an easy decision.  Alberto Contador is the strongest rider in this race and currently the best stage racer in the world.  That should make Johan pause for a second or two.  Balance that with the persistent rumors that Contador was looking to leave Astana and go to Caisse d’Epargne or Garmin.  Regardless of why, Johan must feel that Contador is disloyal.  On the other hand, you have a seven time winner and close friend.  Done, decision made.

So how does a Director give the win to Lance.  While I said that Lance looks strong in the mountains, he has one weakness, speed.  He has strength and stamina but when attacks came, he was the slowest to respond.  Not really a problem since most contenders do not have the pure climber’s acceleration.  One contendor does and that is Contador.  Even though tomorrow is the second of three stages with a mountain top finish, I expect Johan to try to get his team to be conservative tomorrow.  Knowing the current Yellow Jersey holder will crack, let the other teams attack. Astana does not have to.  I really believe this strategy, which sounds rational, is designed to delay a Contador attack for as long as possible.  Like Arcalis, a late attack by Contador will only net small time gains.  Should Contador attack early, look for Lance to get a free ride off a panicking Schleck’s wheel.

At the end of tomorrow, the Director will have his man in perfect position to take yellow in the time trial.  The time trial is the only place where you can “attack” a yellow jersey worn by your own teammate.  With Lance in yellow on the Ventoux, Contador is muted.  The only potential problem with this strategy is if Schleck attacks early and Contador, with his bigger acceleration, get’s his wheel first.  Look for the two to work together to put time into everyone else.  I’m sure Bjarne is thinking about this stuff too.

Don’t shoot yourself in the foot.

The world’s best rider with the world’s worst nickname, Alberto “El Pistolero” Contador can’t seem to win a Tour and enjoy it at the same time.  His first victory was gained in the wake of the Rasmussen and travelgate.  Now, he is on perfect position to win his second and he has worry more about the enemy within than any other challenge.  I can even see the team party where champagne glasses are raised and accolades are professed through gritted teeth. If you take lemons and make lemonade, let’s say that this one will be the sweetest because of how much he overcame to gain the top step of the podium.

To get there, you need to ride well two more times.  The first challenge will be tomorrow.  Lance should not attack.  He has shown he does not have the breakaway ability he once had.  Combine that with the category one climb and it is not a good launching pad.  If you are in yellow Sunday night, then Phase one is complete.  Phase two is the TT.  I know you are the Spanish Time Trial Champion.  That means nothing in the final TT of the Tour.  Someone will do something special, someone always does.  One person in the race may be the best final time trialist the Tour has ever seen.  Expect something special from him.  You need to perform beyond yourself.  If you end the TT in yellow, then you have won the Tour de Astana.  The Tour de France victory will be much easier.

One note of advice.  Lose the nickname.  Whenever you give yourself a nickname, it can’t be good.  Just ask “The Hoff.”

I can’t wait.

Editor’s note. While I don’t get many comments, I get a fair number of emails.  Some have suggested I have it in for Lance Armstrong.  Quite the contrary, I am a huge Armstrong fan.  Armstrong is a true champion.  If you look at the greats they all have that drive to succeed.  Lance’s face is not unlike Tiger Woods expression at a major event.  I am just commenting on asking that type of person to take a role that runs against his very DNA.  For a guy who looks for the humor in life, this is a situation that is too good to pass up.

While I don’t mind the emails, I’d rather have the comments since that can spark a discussion which will probably be more interesting than my actual posts.

Class, you all get an A for today

I really enjoyed today’s stage.  Contador attacked as we all thought he would/should.  If you are a Contador fan, you have to be giddy about today.  He not only took the lead in the Tour de Astana race, he is not put in a position of defending a lead in the Tour de France.  Lance also looked good.  He obviously does not have the snap of his youth but who of us does.  He showed a little slowness on any fast acceleration but the form and stamina was there.

That responsibility goes to the best possible place.  AG2R.  A French team holds the Yellow Jersey.  With two hard days ahead you need a team willing to destroy themselves to keep the jersey.  What better motivation than a home team?  If they get through to the rest day, then the Italian rider with the jersey will ride into Italy with the race lead.  Can you script it any better?

With all this, what do you think was my favorite part of today’s stage?  It was the site of Fabian Cancellara descending.  In order to recover from two flats, Cancellara needed to do some nifty descending.  This is one of those skills that is so wonderful to see performed.  It shows why the sport these men enjoy is totally different than the sport we enjoy.

Should Contador attack tomorrow?

I’ve been back and forth on this one.  Tomorrow is the first mountain stage but it is very early in the race.  I’ve landed on yes but it is not a “no brainer.”  Here is a peek in my internal debate.

Do not attack:

1. It is only stage 7.  If you attack and get the yellow jersey then the odds are you will need to defend it for two weeks.  That is a long time to defend.  If Astana has a weakness, it is too strong a team.  What I mean by that is if you think of the old US Postal/Discovery teams, they were very strong.  The key difference is they were 8 domestiques working for one leader.  There was no ambiguity in that regard.  With Astana, there are three and possibly 4 individuals who may think of themselves as the leader.  With that ambiguity, do you really think Levi Leipheimer will sit on the front and ride tempo for kilometer upon kilometer across a flat stage?  Will Lance Armstrong turn himself inside out to pull back a break.  For that matter, will Andreas Kloden fetch water and food for Contador?  I tend to doubt it.  Having 8 individuals who do not care about placings or time gives you 8 strong men who will do whatever is necessary to deliver a victory to the team.  If Contador takes a strong lead tomorrow, what will happen when the true domestiques tire in about a week.  Who will defend the jersey during the all-important last week?
2. Second, this climb does not fully suit Contador’s style.  This climb is for the power climbers.  There is not a lot of changes in gradient and ultra steep sections for a pure climber to gain a lot of time.  Contador may spend a lot of energy for very little time gains.  That could make him vulnerable.

Attack:

1. If you don’t some else will.  Evans and Menchov need time.  A lot of time.  They need to attack everywhere they can.  This is a good finish for Evans to attack and possibly gain time.  In the end, he may just end up pacing the true contenders up the climb. 
2. Contador needs to stamp his authority on Astana first, then the rest of the Tour.  Look for an early attack at Astana’s pretenders to the throne.  I think if there is a pause, Leipheimer may go.  Once a teammate goes up the hill, Contador will need to remain in neutral with the pack.  Normally sending a teammate up the road is a very effective way to soften up other teams.  In this case, there will be other motives.
3. It is who Contador is.  Alberto Contador is an attacking personality.  He needs to ride to his strengths.  If you hold back a thoroughbread, you risk losing the race.

There is my brief synopsis.  I’d love to hear yours.

Thomas Voeckler finally wins a stage

Some people like Lance Armstrong, some people don’t.  Everyone likes Thomas Voeckler.  In 2004, Thomas Voeckler captured worldwide attention when he valiantly held on to the yellow jersey for 10 days.  Voeckler exuded tenacity as he turned himself inside out to buy one more day in yellow.  During that time, Voeckler even got to Mr. Armstrong himself.  When Lance assumed the race lead, it was clear he felt like the school bully taking the jersey off the young Frenchman’s back. Voeckler did all this without actually winning a stage. By the end of that Tour, Voeckler lost Yellow as well as the White Jersey (best young rider) but won the hearts of the world.

Well, now the man with the ugliest climbing style has added a Tour de France stage win to his palmares.  If the legend holds that a Frenchman who wore yellow will never have to buy dinner again in France, then Voeckler has guaranteed a check-free existence in that country for the remainder of his life.

Why do we like him so much?  Well, for most of the world, his youthful look combined with his visible effort to while riding give him an everyman appeal.  We like people like us as “Davids” competing in a race filled with “Goliaths.”  He also never says the wrong thing or does the wrong thing.  He is the quintessential good guy.  The French like him because he does not win. We like him because he is not really French.  He comes from the Caribbean island of Martinique.

 

Tour Predictions – My Fave Five

I know we already started.  I jotted this list down on the plane home from vacation.  I could make some changes after Cadel Evans lost over two minutes today and Lance is looking like a top 5 contender, but I’ll leave it alone.

1. Alberto Contador ( surprised?)
2. Andy Schleck (Don’t screw up the time trial)
3. Roman Kreuziger (I don’t know, I just like him)
4. Levi Leipheimer (Serving two masters will take a toll)
5. Cadel Evans (Sorry mate, this is where you belong)

Apologies to Carlos Sastre, Lance Armstrong and Frank Sckleck.  Carlos, your team is not very strong so you’ll lose time in the TTT and have little support in the mountains.  Lance, I don’t think you’ll have the snap to stay with Contador on his attacks. Frank, your brother is much better.

Give me your Fave Five