Tour Predictions – My Fave Five

I know we already started.  I jotted this list down on the plane home from vacation.  I could make some changes after Cadel Evans lost over two minutes today and Lance is looking like a top 5 contender, but I’ll leave it alone.

1. Alberto Contador ( surprised?)
2. Andy Schleck (Don’t screw up the time trial)
3. Roman Kreuziger (I don’t know, I just like him)
4. Levi Leipheimer (Serving two masters will take a toll)
5. Cadel Evans (Sorry mate, this is where you belong)

Apologies to Carlos Sastre, Lance Armstrong and Frank Sckleck.  Carlos, your team is not very strong so you’ll lose time in the TTT and have little support in the mountains.  Lance, I don’t think you’ll have the snap to stay with Contador on his attacks. Frank, your brother is much better.

Give me your Fave Five

Sastre wins yellow

The yellowjersey either lifts you or breaks you.  For Sastre, he turned in a strong performance on Saturday.  Today’s performance made clear the Strategy of team CSC on Wednesday when Sastre attacked his own teammate of L’Alpe.  Sastre had the better chance to to time trial to victory than Frank Schleck.  I was asking myself if Schleck was that tired or did he drop back to provide a target for Sastre once Menchov and Kohl knocked him off the podium.  Probably not since once he was in Sastre’s sights, he didn’t stay there too long.

I’ll have to disagree with Paul Sherwen that Sastre rode an unbelievable time trial.  While it was strong, Sastre placed where he normally places.  I think it was Cadel who showed either the effects of defending his jersey in the mountains or the weight of yellow.  Cadel should have put in a top 5 performance.  His performance should have been on par with Christian Vande Velde which would have put him within 5 seconds of yellow.  At that point, things would have gotten very interesting.

I’ll lean towards the latter reason, yellow weighing heavily.  Take a look at Cadel losing his temper in a post stage interview.

Mano a mano and mano a mano

In the game of musical chairs for the Tour podium, it seems that Christian Vande Velde was the first out when the music stopped.  Tomorrow, we’ll see two more retired.  In my opinion, Bernhard Kohl will be next but who will be last to the exit door?

Look for two races within the time trial.  The first is to sort out first and second.  Sastre vs. Evans.  Cadel is spotting the Spaniard more than a minute and a half.  Too much?  The second race will be for the third step on the podium  This is between Frank Schleck and Denis Menchov.  Menchov is too far (2:39) from Sastre to threaten him for one of the top two but the Russian sits just 1:15 behind Frank. 

My prediction? 1) Evans 2) Sastre 3) Menchov.  While My heart has the two CSC boys first and third, I just can’t bank on that.

Sorry for the bad pun.

Something from our useless trivia department

I may not remember to pick up milk on my way home from work but I am the partner of choice in Trivia games.  And cycling trivia is my favorite category.  So, when looking at today’s stage finish in St. Etienne, I flashed back to the Time Trial in St. Etienne back in 2005.  I remember that vividly since my wife and I were in Paris on that day and we watched the time trial with a small group that included Dave Zabriskie.  Remember, Dave Z. crashed out of that tour on the Team Time Trial.

My first memory was the horrific time trial ridden by Mickel Rasmussen that year.  It was like seeing a bad accident on the side of the road.  I was hard to watch but even harder to not watch.

Then I thought about Saturday’s TT.  How did our protagonists do that day.  Take a look.

1 Lance Armstrong (USA) Discovery Channel (46.4 km/h)     1.11.46
2 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team                         0.23
3 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) T-Mobile Team                1.16
4 Bobby Julich (USA) Team CSC                             1.33
5 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC                               1.54
6 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems               2.02
7 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto                       2.06
8 George Hincapie (USA) Discovery Channel                 2.25
9 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne  2.51
10 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne  3.05
11 Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr) Discovery Channel              3.09
12 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC                           3.10

It seems that Cadel finished 1 minute 4 seconds ahead of Sastre.  Given that he is currently 1 minute 34 behind, what does that say.

I know, the profile is completely different the 2005 course was much hillier thus playing to Sastre’s strengths.

Compared to 2008.

For you Evans fans, there are a hundred reasons why this means nothing.  For Sastre fans, there are probably a hundred reasons this means everything.  For me, this means one thing.  It’s going to be fun to watch.

Epic Battle

Today showed why cycling is a team sport.  We saw that a strong rider with a weak team is at a distinct disadvantage to a rider who may be weaker but is surrounded by a strong team. 

Team CSC destroyed Cadel Evan’s support on the Col de la Croix-de-Fer.  Then in a three pronged attack, Carlos Sastre leapt forward and the two Schleck brothers picked on Evans like school yard bullies.  The younger Schleck kept Evans from settling into a rhythm where he could focus on bringing Sastre back.

It was interesting to hear Garmin Chipolte’s Matt White disagree with CSC’s strategy saying that a constant tempo on the Croix-de-fer was not hurting Cadel.  Then we watched CSC deploy a variable speed strategy on L’Alpe d’Huez. 

 Andy Schleck showed why he is being tapped as the next Tour phenom by dancing around the world’s best cyclist like a moth circling a flame. 

Alas, it may not be enough since Saturday will swing the advantage back to Cadel who is a strong time trialist and in a TT, you don’t need a team.

Time to check in with my predictions

Coming out of the rest day, I looked to take stock in the race leaders to see how they are doing.

Cadel Evans. Wearing yellow at the moment should be a good sign.  My concern here is that his team is showing to be a lot weaker than I thought.  He is easily isolated in the mountains and that in a dangerous situation for the Aussie.  He can afford to give a little time to all his rivals with the exception of Menchov since he is far superior to everyone in the Time Trial.  Watch out though because time lost in the mountains can come in big chunks. I’ll still put him on the top step in Paris but I am less sure of that prediction than I was at the beginning. Chances of victory: Good

Denis Menchov.  Made some mental mistakes that cost him precious seconds.  He sits 57 seconds off Yellow so he’ll need to show some aggression in the Alps.  I would like to see him with a slight lead over Evans heading into the final time trial.  Menchov needs to guard against any aggression creating his signature bad day.  I also don’t think Rabobank can support Denis in yellow too long.  Chances of victory: Fair

Carlos Sastre: CSC is clearly the strongest team among the leading contenders.  Carlos Sastre just can’t seem to deliver a solid blow to the other racers.  I don’t know if he lacks the ability to do it now or the killer instinct.  I don’t see the acceleration he once showed in 2003 on the Plateau de Bonascre.  While he was riding defensively since Frank Schleck was up ahead, he had an opportunity to escape alone and bridge the gap to Schleck where the two could have put serious time into Evans.  He gave what looked like a half hearted try. Time is running out since he will need at least 3 minutes going into the final time trial.  Chances of victory: Poor – Fair

Alejandro Valverde: After completely blowing up on the Tourmalet, Valverde’s chances are slim to none. Time to think of the Vuelta.

As for the long shots, Cunego did not make a peep before being dropped with Valverde on Stage 10.  I expect Damiano to take a shot at redemption on L’Alpe.  Kim Kirchen is really making a name for himself as the best of the rest.  He led in both the points and overall classifications by showing he is a very strong rider.

Frank Schleck is having a great tour.  He showed us his Achilles heel with a very weak time trial losing a huge amount of time ( 2:14) over a short 29km. He will not be given much room to break away in the Alps and I don’t think he has the acceleration to break free on his own.  If CSC decides to dedicate themselves to him, he may stand a chance to get time.  Then he has to ride the TT of his life.  A lot of “ifs” for a real shot at the top step.  He has a very good shot at 3rd.

I’m not going to give much press to Ricardo Rico.  He has shown he has tremendous talent as a climber.  A top eight finish is probable.

Finally, Christian Vande Velde is having an unbelievable Tour.  Garmin is getting paid back their entire investment in just one race.  I hope he can hang on through a tough final week and get a shot at the podium.  Will midnight strike for this Cinderella in the Alps?  Here is someone who is hoping it does not.

I’ve given you five names for three steps.  The fight for each step is going to keep me rivited.

Moving on

Time waits for no one.  While I still feel a void left by the CAS ruling, I need to look forward to the sport I love.  Cycling is preparing to host the greatest event on the calendar.  The Tour de France.  Cycling is bigger than any one person regardless if that person is Floyd Landis or Christian Prudhomme.  So we move forward looking for the best in the sport out of the ashes of the worst.

So how is the race going to shape up?  Well, to call it wide open is an understatement. With no previous Tour winner in the race (I know what I am saying), the race is up for grabs.  Some may think that will yield an exciting race, I feel the odds point towards the opposite.  No rider has enough of an advantage over another rider to take the race.  therefore, you will probably see most of the GC guys riding not to lose as opposed to riding to win.

I do not criticize any rider for this strategy.  Cycling may be the last true sport where the athletes are not entertainers first and sportsmen second.  I can’t say that about the big sports here in the US.  These men are paid to win and they should race to their strengths.  That means Cadel Evans needs to ride each stage worried about the overall, not the stage victory.  This Tour may have a podium with no stage winners.

The top step of the podium is a very interesting question to ponder.  Here is my take.  I don’t know.  My pick?  Cadel has the highest probability of winning.  He will probably win due to the faults of others as opposed to anything he does.  Let me break down the short list of the Yellow Jersey contenders. I’ll put them in my projected order of finish

Cadel Evans. His greatest strength is he is good across the board.  Good climber, good time trialist, good all around rider.  His weakness is he is good across the board.  Not great.  He also will have one of the weaker teams among the contenders.

Denis Menchov. If you ask me to pick a winner in the “someone other than Cadel Evans” category, I’ll go with Menchov.  His strength is he looks and feels like a real GC rider.  His weakness is he always finds a way to have a real bad day.  In the Tour, this is 100% fatal (except in 2006).  This year, he may have an opportunity to recover since there may be others with bad days.

Carlos Sastre. I love Carlos.  He seems to be a real nice guy. The George Hincapie of GC contenders.  Strength is he is the best climber of the bunch.  His weakness is more than his time trialling.  He just can’t seem to deal the killer blow.  Is he too nice for his own good?  Look at past Tour winners.  Nice is usually not the first word used in the description.

Alejandro Valverde. The guy used to have a nick name of Invincible.  Now I would add brittle.  His strength is he is the most talented rider in the peloton.  He also has a very strong team.  His weakness is he finished only one tour.  Last year he was 6th.  I don’t think he has the staying power of a three week stage racer.  Neck down champion.  Neck up a great classics rider.

The rest of the bunch are also rans.  Guys like Damiano Cunego and Kim Kirchen will make noise, maybe win a stage or two but will not challenge for the overall.  If I had to pick a winner from left field, I would pick Frank Schleck.  The reason beyond heart is that most of the best talent beyond the top four is pledged to those top four.  Guys like Yaroslav Popovych are fully pledged to their leader.  They will kill themselves for their team and thus remove themselves from contention.  Frank is protected and may stay protected long enough to take over as team leader should Sastre falter.  The odds are long, very long against Frank.  Given the right circumstances….