The Tour de France organizers stacked the deck for the last week so before the fireworks begin tomorrow, let’s take a look at where we are.

Meet the new boss.  Same as the old boss.

As the kilometers go by, Lance is looking more and more like he never lost a step, er stroke.  He looks strong in the mountains, mostly. He also is acting like the leader of Astana, not a leader of Astana.  Listen to Lance’s measured reaction after Contador’s attack on the Arcalis.  Compare that to the same parental tone he had in previous Tours when he was disappointed in his team.  It also seems that in the battle for team support, the deck is stacked in Lance’s favor.  Lance suffered a big setback when Leipheimer broke his wrist and was forced to abandon.

To win, Lance needs to keep Contador close tomorrow.  Someone, probably Schleck will attack.  Be first on the wheel.  Even if Contador follows, you stay together.  Second, ride like the wind in the final TT.  Channel your past Tour TTs to grab yellow at this critical juncture.  You need to be in yellow at the base of the Ventoux.  If not, all bets are off.

Et tu Brute?

Johan Bruyneel knows that he has the two strongest riders in the Tour.  Any doubts about Lance Armstrong are gone.  Externally, no contender has stepped up to challenge the team and its two men.  Evans and Menchov have fallen away.  Only Andy Schleck has stayed around this long.  His problem is he can’t stay too much longer.  With the TT ahead, he needs to begin to ride like he is 1:30 – 2:00  behind because he is.  I can even see a scenario where Schleck loses three minutes in the TT.

With two riders on the same team that can win the tour, the decision falls to the Director.  Johan has to decide who he will make king.  While it is not a no-brainer, it is an easy decision.  Alberto Contador is the strongest rider in this race and currently the best stage racer in the world.  That should make Johan pause for a second or two.  Balance that with the persistent rumors that Contador was looking to leave Astana and go to Caisse d’Epargne or Garmin.  Regardless of why, Johan must feel that Contador is disloyal.  On the other hand, you have a seven time winner and close friend.  Done, decision made.

So how does a Director give the win to Lance.  While I said that Lance looks strong in the mountains, he has one weakness, speed.  He has strength and stamina but when attacks came, he was the slowest to respond.  Not really a problem since most contenders do not have the pure climber’s acceleration.  One contendor does and that is Contador.  Even though tomorrow is the second of three stages with a mountain top finish, I expect Johan to try to get his team to be conservative tomorrow.  Knowing the current Yellow Jersey holder will crack, let the other teams attack. Astana does not have to.  I really believe this strategy, which sounds rational, is designed to delay a Contador attack for as long as possible.  Like Arcalis, a late attack by Contador will only net small time gains.  Should Contador attack early, look for Lance to get a free ride off a panicking Schleck’s wheel.

At the end of tomorrow, the Director will have his man in perfect position to take yellow in the time trial.  The time trial is the only place where you can “attack” a yellow jersey worn by your own teammate.  With Lance in yellow on the Ventoux, Contador is muted.  The only potential problem with this strategy is if Schleck attacks early and Contador, with his bigger acceleration, get’s his wheel first.  Look for the two to work together to put time into everyone else.  I’m sure Bjarne is thinking about this stuff too.

Don’t shoot yourself in the foot.

The world’s best rider with the world’s worst nickname, Alberto “El Pistolero” Contador can’t seem to win a Tour and enjoy it at the same time.  His first victory was gained in the wake of the Rasmussen and travelgate.  Now, he is on perfect position to win his second and he has worry more about the enemy within than any other challenge.  I can even see the team party where champagne glasses are raised and accolades are professed through gritted teeth. If you take lemons and make lemonade, let’s say that this one will be the sweetest because of how much he overcame to gain the top step of the podium.

To get there, you need to ride well two more times.  The first challenge will be tomorrow.  Lance should not attack.  He has shown he does not have the breakaway ability he once had.  Combine that with the category one climb and it is not a good launching pad.  If you are in yellow Sunday night, then Phase one is complete.  Phase two is the TT.  I know you are the Spanish Time Trial Champion.  That means nothing in the final TT of the Tour.  Someone will do something special, someone always does.  One person in the race may be the best final time trialist the Tour has ever seen.  Expect something special from him.  You need to perform beyond yourself.  If you end the TT in yellow, then you have won the Tour de Astana.  The Tour de France victory will be much easier.

One note of advice.  Lose the nickname.  Whenever you give yourself a nickname, it can’t be good.  Just ask “The Hoff.”

I can’t wait.

Editor’s note. While I don’t get many comments, I get a fair number of emails.  Some have suggested I have it in for Lance Armstrong.  Quite the contrary, I am a huge Armstrong fan.  Armstrong is a true champion.  If you look at the greats they all have that drive to succeed.  Lance’s face is not unlike Tiger Woods expression at a major event.  I am just commenting on asking that type of person to take a role that runs against his very DNA.  For a guy who looks for the humor in life, this is a situation that is too good to pass up.

While I don’t mind the emails, I’d rather have the comments since that can spark a discussion which will probably be more interesting than my actual posts.

I really enjoyed today’s stage.  Contador attacked as we all thought he would/should.  If you are a Contador fan, you have to be giddy about today.  He not only took the lead in the Tour de Astana race, he is not put in a position of defending a lead in the Tour de France.  Lance also looked good.  He obviously does not have the snap of his youth but who of us does.  He showed a little slowness on any fast acceleration but the form and stamina was there.

That responsibility goes to the best possible place.  AG2R.  A French team holds the Yellow Jersey.  With two hard days ahead you need a team willing to destroy themselves to keep the jersey.  What better motivation than a home team?  If they get through to the rest day, then the Italian rider with the jersey will ride into Italy with the race lead.  Can you script it any better?

With all this, what do you think was my favorite part of today’s stage?  It was the site of Fabian Cancellara descending.  In order to recover from two flats, Cancellara needed to do some nifty descending.  This is one of those skills that is so wonderful to see performed.  It shows why the sport these men enjoy is totally different than the sport we enjoy.

I’ve been back and forth on this one.  Tomorrow is the first mountain stage but it is very early in the race.  I’ve landed on yes but it is not a “no brainer.”  Here is a peek in my internal debate.

Do not attack:

1. It is only stage 7.  If you attack and get the yellow jersey then the odds are you will need to defend it for two weeks.  That is a long time to defend.  If Astana has a weakness, it is too strong a team.  What I mean by that is if you think of the old US Postal/Discovery teams, they were very strong.  The key difference is they were 8 domestiques working for one leader.  There was no ambiguity in that regard.  With Astana, there are three and possibly 4 individuals who may think of themselves as the leader.  With that ambiguity, do you really think Levi Leipheimer will sit on the front and ride tempo for kilometer upon kilometer across a flat stage?  Will Lance Armstrong turn himself inside out to pull back a break.  For that matter, will Andreas Kloden fetch water and food for Contador?  I tend to doubt it.  Having 8 individuals who do not care about placings or time gives you 8 strong men who will do whatever is necessary to deliver a victory to the team.  If Contador takes a strong lead tomorrow, what will happen when the true domestiques tire in about a week.  Who will defend the jersey during the all-important last week?
2. Second, this climb does not fully suit Contador’s style.  This climb is for the power climbers.  There is not a lot of changes in gradient and ultra steep sections for a pure climber to gain a lot of time.  Contador may spend a lot of energy for very little time gains.  That could make him vulnerable.

Attack:

1. If you don’t some else will.  Evans and Menchov need time.  A lot of time.  They need to attack everywhere they can.  This is a good finish for Evans to attack and possibly gain time.  In the end, he may just end up pacing the true contenders up the climb. 
2. Contador needs to stamp his authority on Astana first, then the rest of the Tour.  Look for an early attack at Astana’s pretenders to the throne.  I think if there is a pause, Leipheimer may go.  Once a teammate goes up the hill, Contador will need to remain in neutral with the pack.  Normally sending a teammate up the road is a very effective way to soften up other teams.  In this case, there will be other motives.
3. It is who Contador is.  Alberto Contador is an attacking personality.  He needs to ride to his strengths.  If you hold back a thoroughbread, you risk losing the race.

There is my brief synopsis.  I’d love to hear yours.

Some people like Lance Armstrong, some people don’t.  Everyone likes Thomas Voeckler.  In 2004, Thomas Voeckler captured worldwide attention when he valiantly held on to the yellow jersey for 10 days.  Voeckler exuded tenacity as he turned himself inside out to buy one more day in yellow.  During that time, Voeckler even got to Mr. Armstrong himself.  When Lance assumed the race lead, it was clear he felt like the school bully taking the jersey off the young Frenchman’s back. Voeckler did all this without actually winning a stage. By the end of that Tour, Voeckler lost Yellow as well as the White Jersey (best young rider) but won the hearts of the world.

Well, now the man with the ugliest climbing style has added a Tour de France stage win to his palmares.  If the legend holds that a Frenchman who wore yellow will never have to buy dinner again in France, then Voeckler has guaranteed a check-free existence in that country for the remainder of his life.

Why do we like him so much?  Well, for most of the world, his youthful look combined with his visible effort to while riding give him an everyman appeal.  We like people like us as “Davids” competing in a race filled with “Goliaths.”  He also never says the wrong thing or does the wrong thing.  He is the quintessential good guy.  The French like him because he does not win. We like him because he is not really French.  He comes from the Caribbean island of Martinique.

I know we already started.  I jotted this list down on the plane home from vacation.  I could make some changes after Cadel Evans lost over two minutes today and Lance is looking like a top 5 contender, but I’ll leave it alone.

1. Alberto Contador ( surprised?)
2. Andy Schleck (Don’t screw up the time trial)
3. Roman Kreuziger (I don’t know, I just like him)
4. Levi Leipheimer (Serving two masters will take a toll)
5. Cadel Evans (Sorry mate, this is where you belong)

Apologies to Carlos Sastre, Lance Armstrong and Frank Sckleck.  Carlos, your team is not very strong so you’ll lose time in the TTT and have little support in the mountains.  Lance, I don’t think you’ll have the snap to stay with Contador on his attacks. Frank, your brother is much better.

Give me your Fave Five

My argument against the Tour de France is that the first week of the race is always boring.  Prologue, sprint, sprint, breakaway almost makes it but sprint, and another sprint.  Kind of like the NBA,  just tune into the end to see the real game.

I stand corrected.  Yesterday’s wind showed everyone who never saw a spring classic what happens when you ride near the coast.  Today’s time trial showed why this should be a staple in every Grand Tour.  The juxtaposition of power and beauty of watching a well drilled team ride is awe inspiring.  Just when you think it is easy, watch a team like BBox blow it to pieces.

So, to sum up the first four stages in one sentence.  Alberto Contador won the Tour by a few hundreth’s of a second.

While I really think Lance came here to be a domestique, I have a firm belief that a champion can’t be domesticated. Just like you can’t domesticate a lion, you can’t fully tame the champion.  What drove them to be a champion is in their DNA.  It is who they are.

When Lance started the Stage 1 Time Trial in the 18th position, he made a statement to me that he was assuming the role of domestique.  He would ride the TT without benefit of his teammates feeding him intimate information about the course on race day.  He would not get to see where people were making time and losing time.  He would be the tester and he would be the supplier of information back to his team.

Then Stage 3 came and Lance found himself in the right end of the split.  You might as well wave a big juicy steak in front of the aforementioned lion.  Instinct took over.  Never far from the surface, the Champion emerged.  To the front went his two Astana teammates to help drive the break.

Today he had a chance to regain the Yellow Jersey.  A jersey he wore 83 days in previous Tours.  Let’s face it, Yellow is his color.  When Lance wears any other jersey, it looks just plain wrong.  The same way Miguel Indurain looked out of place in his Banesto team kit.  Champions must wear yellow.  Lance missed day 84 by a blink of an eye.  It may be the best thing to happen to Astana.

We all know that Alberto Contador is the best chance for a win for Astana.  He is the best stage racer in the world and he is on the strongest team in the world.  If Lance had donned yellow today, it would have been hard for Contador to prove that.  The mind set of a team in yellow switches from offensive to defensive.  With a legitimate contender in yellow, it would be hard to attack when the Tour goes to Arcalis for stage 7.  You don’t attack your own team mate.  Yes, I know Carlos Sastre did just that last year.  The original plan was to send him first and then send Andy Schleck second when Sastre got caught.  The plan went wrong when Sastre never got caught.

If Contador did attack Lance in yellow, that could have created a division in Astana.  One like we have not seen since the LeMond-Hinault days.  Remember when Hinault promised to work for LeMond? You can’t fully tame a champion.

Now, Contador can attack on Stage 7.  He better because winning Stage 7 may be enough to cage the champion inside Lance long enough for him to return to the role he accepted at the start of Stage 1.

The Official Word from Universal Sports.  Also, they are trying to put the heat on Direct tv.  If you are so inclined, call them  1-800-Directv.  Here is the press release:

UNIVERSAL SPORTS ANNOUNCES MULTI-YEAR DEAL TO BROADCAST GIRO D’ITALIA

TV and LIVE Online Coverage Starts Tomorrow

 Agreement Coincides with the Event’s 100^th Anniversary and Lance Armstrong’s Italian Giro Debut

LOS ANGELES – May 8, 2009 – Universal Sports announced a multi-year deal today to broadcast the Giro d’Italia as the race celebrates its 100^th anniversary, starting tomorrow. Lance Armstrong will make his debut in this race as he returns from his retirement.  Coverage of the race begins with a team time trial on Saturday, May 9, from Lido di Venezia on the Universal Sports Network and live online, all broadcast times available at UniversalSports.com.

Universal Sports continues to solidify its commitment to broadcast top cycling events with the multi-year broadcast agreement. As part of the deal, Universal Sports will provide television and online coverage, including archived video and television re-airs, for the 2009–2012 Giro d’Italia races.  Previous to this agreement, the race was available on a limited basis on the Versus network, and through pay-per-view on Cycling.TV. In addition to the Giro, Universal Sports has had a long-term agreement with the International Cycling Union (UCI) to broadcast world cups and world championships in Road, Track, Cyclo-cross, Mountain and BMX, as well as the Tour of Basque Country, Tour of Missouri, Tour of Georgia and the Deutschland Tour.

COVERAGE ON UNIVERSAL SPORTS:  Universal Sports, available in 45 million homes, will present same-day coverage of the 2009 Giro d’Italia, with nightly re-airs at 9 p.m. ET and 11 p.m. ET. The Universal Sports broadcast team consists of Steve Schlanger and former professional cyclist Todd Gogulski, with Scott Ogle on the ground in Italy.

Date                 Events                                                                        Time (all times ET)

May 9             Lido di Venezia                                                        12 p.m.

May 10           Jesolo to Trieste                                                       12 p.m.

May 11           Grado to Valdobbiadene                                        12 p.m.

May 12           Padova to San Martino di Castrozza                    12 p.m.

May 13           San Martino di Castrozza to Alpe di Siusi           12 p.m.

May 14           Bressanone to Mayrhofen                                                 12 p.m.

May 15           Innsbruck to Chiavenna                                         12 p.m.

May 16           Morbegno to Bergamo                                            12 p.m.

May 17           Milano                                                                        12 p.m.

May 18           Rest day       

May 19           Cuneo → Pinerolo                                                  12 p.m.

May 20           Torino to Arenzano                                                  12 p.m.

May 21           Sestri Levante to Riomaggiore                              12 p.m.

May 22           Lido di Camaiore to Firenze                                   12 p.m.

May 23           Campi Bisenzio to San Luca (Bologna)              12 p.m.

May 24           Forlì to Faenza                                                         12 p.m.

May 25           Pergola to Monte Petrano                                      12 p.m.

May 26           Rest day       

May 27           Chieti to Blockhaus                                                             12 p.m.

May 28           Sulmona to Benevento                                           12 p.m.

May 29           Avellino to Monte Vesuvius                                   12 p.m.

May 30           Napoli to Anagni                                                      12 p.m.

May 31           Roma                                                                         12 p.m.

COVERAGE ON UNIVERSALSPORTS.COM:  UniversalSports.com will provide exclusive, live coverage of the entire Giro d’Italia, starting with the Stage 1 team time trial at 8:30 a.m. ET. Each race will be streamed live at 8:30 a.m. – 12 p.m. ET. Complete schedule, as well as full-length videos, highlights, stage maps, photos and breaking news available at UniversalSports.com/cycling.

ABOUT THE RACE:  The Giro d’Italia is one of the three major, multi-week European professional cycling stage races, along with the Tour de France and Vuelta a España (Tour of Spain). The Giro consists of 21 stages, including six stages held in the mountains. The Giro will conclude at the Colosseum in Rome on May 31.

Alberto Contador was the winner of the Giro in 2008 and only the fifth rider to win all three grand tours of cycling, but will not defend his title this year.  Italian Ivan Basso won the 2006 race and is returning after a two-year doping ban.

ABOUT UNIVERSAL SPORTS: Universal Sports, a partnership between NBC Sports and InterMedia Partners, serves as the preeminent multiplatform destination for Olympic-related and lifestyle sports programming available on television and online. Universal Sports is a 24-hour television channel available in 45 million television households in markets including New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington D.C., San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Seattle, Las Vegas, Indianapolis, Reno and Omaha. Major world championship and Olympic qualifying events found on Universal Sports range from track and field, skiing, swimming, gymnastics, marathons and cycling, to volleyball, rowing, triathlon, fencing, speed skating and martial arts. UniversalSports.com delivers an immersive experience via live and on-demand competition coverage, interaction with top athletes through blogs and in-depth access to Olympic sports news and information year round. For more information on the availability of the Universal Sports 24-hour television channel, please visit UniversalSports.com

Back in 1999, I quit my cable and joined Dish network for one reason and one reason only.  They had The Outdoor Life Network.  Back then, the Outdoor Life Network was the only port of call for European cycling in the US.  I made the change in May just in time for the Giro d’Italia.  I had to endure complaints from my family about satellite companies not providing the local feed of the Weather Channel.  To me, it was an easy sacrifice.  No “Local on the 8s” but the voices of Phil and Paul were now in my house.  Later when I switched to Direct TV, I made sure OLN was in the lineup.

In September of 2006, Comcast, the parent renamed OLN, Versus.  Versus also acquired the rights to the NHL.  That was fine.  I never saw hockey as compition to cycling.  What was increasingly supplanting cycling from the Versus lineup was Bull Riding.  

Cycling now had become the red-headed step child of the Comcast Sports family.  Neglected.  Not allowed to grow and achieve its full potential.  You heard me call for a Cycling channel but with Comcast’s vice like grip on Grand Tour and Pro Tour rights, that could not happen.  So I turned to Broadband and Cycling.tv.

Cycling.tv brought the whole cycling world directly into my home (or office if you need to know the truth). Versus had all kinds of rights to the Grand Tours but was able to partner with Cycling.tv to bring them to the Internet.  I was satisfied, if not happy with the arrangement.

For the first time in a long time, there is a little light at the end of the tunnel.  NBC and it’s Universal Sports Channel has acquired the rights to the Giro d’Italia.  No fanfare, I was just sent the below email from Universal Sports yesterday at 4:44pm.

Just a heads up we will be broadcasting the Giro d’Italia starting Saturday!!! Sorry for the late notice we just found out we got the rights.  I will have more details and information shortly. 

All LIVE on-line and just a slight delay on TV ( I believe all races will start at 12 on TV)! 

Cycling Channel: http://www.universalsports.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=23000&KEY=&SPID=13044&SPSID=105618 

With that, my world began to change.  Could we finally get a cycling channel?  Could we grow within a sports loving, nurturing company?  The smell of athletic competition has replaced the smell of Bull dung.

Unfortunately, it seems that there is some collateral damage.  It looks like Cycling.tv lost the Versus Giro feed and will go dark tomorrow morning.  In fact, it looks like all the Italian races organized by RCS are now off the Internet.  This includes Milan-Sanremo, the Giro di Lombardia and Tirreno Adriatico.

I do not have confirmation from Universal how they intend to broadcast the Giro over the Internet or if they will work out a deal with Cycling.tv.  Looking at their site, I don’t see the infrastructure for Internet broadcasting.  This is important to me because, I am back to where I was in 1999.  My provider does not carry Universal Sports. Curse you Direct TV!

Unlike 1999, I don’t have an easy solution.  I’m told by Verizon that FiOS service is still a few weeks away.  Ironically, my other option is, get this, Comcast.  Yes, Comcast carries Universal Sports. If this is for the greater good, I’ll need to figure out a work around until Verizon gets their wondrous fiber to my end of the street.

Well, it looks like our Boy Scout has gotten himself into trouble again.  Tyler Hamilton has retired after testing positive for the steroid DHEA.  My first thought was confirmation that the Boy Scout image I believed for so many years was actually a ruse.  Then I read his reason for the mishap.

Mr. Hamilton says he took an over the counter herbal supplement that contained the banned substance.  Then he let us know about his family history, his grandmother’s suicide.  Take the family history combined with the way his life has gone sideways since his 2004 Olympic gold medal and you have a good story.  I actually found myself nodding in belief.  Then I thought.

“Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.”

I waited to post until I read a post from Dan over at Rant Your Head Off.  Dan has forgotten more about doping than I’ll ever know.  Dan quite literally wrote the book on doping in sports. What I do know is DHEA is pretty fay up the steroid cascade.  A building block that can be used if you are not on the straight and narrow.  If you are not a Boy Scout.  

So for now, I will not buy into the Hamilton saga.  I find it hard to Believe.  If true, I find it disgraceful to use family tragedy to build sympathy for cheating.  So to avoid the downward spiral that thinking about Tyler can cause, I’ll take a pass and focus on today’s Amstel Gold race.

Today, I received the following email from the website Cyclist Village:

Dear Member,

We regret to inform you that Cyclist Village will be closing down effective immediately. We appreciate your support and participation and wish you all the best.
Regards,
Cyclist Village

Originally started under the title Broadband Racer, Cyclist Village tried to expand the social networking world into cycling.  Blogs, video posts from professional riders as well as fans, Cyclist Village found that while popular, social networking sites have trouble finding a viable business model.

God’s Speed Cyclist Village.