Did you hear?

This morning, my inbox was flooded with emails along the lines of “Did you hear?”  Unfortunately, I did.  Again.  Another cyclist coming clean after years of protesting his innocence.  Increasingly, I am getting disenchanted with my  sport. 

I started this blog in July of 2006 and found it fun and cathartic to express my views on professional cycling.  I would scan the news and provide a brief interpretation from my point of view.  Shortly after starting my blog, the Floyd Landis story broke.  I weighed in occasionally, tried to lighten the mood often, and really tried to keep the other news alive.  I did not want my blog to become a doping column.  The problem is that quite often, the only stories were of doping.  Basso, Hamilton, Vinokourov, Heras, Rico, and on and on and on.  Dick Pound got more cycling press than anyone.  His “Q score” in cycling was probably higher than Alberto Contador.

Then cycling acquired an autoimmune disease and started to attack itself.  Pound vs. McQuaid became a bigger draw than MMA.  Over the last year, my writing became sporadic since it was no longer cathartic but maddening.  I’ll still write from time to time but I’m in a cycling low right now.

I still read the news, follow the races, and cheer for riders. And pray they are clean.

Cross France off Floyd’s vacation list

Mr. Harden, it’s my duty to inform you that the larceny of an equine is a capital offense punishable by death, but you can rest assured that in this court a horse thief always gets a fair trial before he’s hung – The Westerner 1940

As things do, this story is finding its own level.  It seems that AFLD Director, Pierre Bordry over stated his authority.  Shocking that the French anti-doping authority would try to do such a thing.  I guess France is still reeling over their loss of influence over anything outside their borders.  They may see doping investigations for their Tour de France as a way back to relevancy. 

Pierre, now says that if Floyd chooses to return to Fench soil, he may be asked to come to suburban Paris to answer questions to a judge chosen by AFLD. Maybe the CIA can resurrect their New Earth Army program because Floyd has the incredible mind to match his athletic abilities.  He can win the Tour de France and rival Kevin Mitnik in computer “security” circles.

Just when you think it is over

Floyd Landis is back in the news. If you remember, back when Floyd was fighting for his professional life, he had copies of multiple files from the Chatenay-Malabry lab.  Those files showed how poorly samples were handled and multiple mistakes made by the lab.  It seems that those files were also stolen.

Four years later, the French want to talk to Floyd about his part in the hacking.  An arrest warrant was issued after Landis ignored a summons sent last November.  An international warrant was also issued for Dr. Arnold Baker.  I have no idea what this means for the rider who just recently left his US based team OUCH (now United Healthcare). Just as he was looking good on the bike again.

Maybe this is in retaliation for Roman Polanski?

UCI Launches Anti-Doping Education Program

In 1930, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, in an effort to alleviate the effects of the… Anyone? Anyone?… the Great Depression, passed the… Anyone? Anyone? The tariff bill? The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act? Which, anyone? Raised or lowered?… raised tariffs, in an effort to collect more revenue for the federal government. Did it work? Anyone? Anyone know the effects? It did not work, and the United States sank deeper into the Great Depression. Today we have a similar debate over this. Anyone know what this is? Class? Anyone? Anyone? Anyone seen this before? The Laffer Curve. Anyone know what this says? It says that at this point on the revenue curve, you will get exactly the same amount of revenue as at this point. This is very controversial. Does anyone know what Vice President Bush called this in 1980? Anyone? Something-d-o-o economics. “Voodoo” economics. – Ferris Bueller’s day Off 1986

Professional cyclists must be feeling that their profession is becoming more like a job every day.  The latest is the mandatory training program on doping.  Riders must complete a DVD or online “training” course by the start of the Tour de France next year or lose their ability to race. 

Was that wrong? Should I not have done that? I tell you, I gotta plead ignorance on this thing, because if anyone had said anything to me at all when I first started here that that sort of thing is frowned upon . . . you know, cause I’ve worked in a lot of offices, and I tell you, people do that all the time. George Costanza Seinfield

I put training in quotes because if you listen to the UCI, the main goal is more CYA than education.  The UCI wants to squash any excuse of “I didn’t know” or the old “Was that wrong?” I have to tell you, I have sat through many of these type of education courses.  When written to cover a rear end, there is no more boring course on the planet. 

I wonder if Ben Stein is the host?

Bueller? ... Bueller? ... Bueller?

Will Greg LeMond shut up?

Bitter at anyone who shows greatness, Greg LeMond seethes bitterness at his new target, Alberto Contador. Looking at the final climb of Mt. Verbier.

“Never has a rider in the Tour climbed so fast.”

Where does he get his opinion?  LeMond takes some postulations from Antoine Vayer, former Festina Trainer.  The face that Vayer clearly states that he makes a significant number of assumptions in his calculations  did not sway the former Tour Champ.

“Contador would have needed a VO2 max  of 99.5 ml/mn/kg to produce such an effort. To my knowledge this figure has never been achieved by any athlete in any sport. It is a bit like if you took a nice Mercedes out of the car showroom, lined it up on a Formula 1 circuit and won the race. There is something that is wrong. It would be interesting to know what is under the bonnet.”

The Science of Sport outlines these assumptions (including a big assumption of a 490 watt output) and how any conclusions made from watching TV are not worth the paper they are written on.  From article:

Last week, we looked at Contador’s climbing rate (VAMs) and using Michele Ferrari’s formula, arrive at a power output of 6.78 W/kg, or 420W.

Alex Simmons very kindly provided some calculations for the climb, given the speed and gradient, and he arrived at a value of 422 W. He went on to show that if you assume even a small following wind, this power output drops to 397W.

Using the same principles, but making more “aggressive” assumptions, I have calculated the power output at around 440 W - this is an upper end, call it the “worst case scenario”, because I think Alex has pretty much arrived at the accurate figures using his equations (which match the estimation of the Ferrari equations based on VAMs)

Given the seriousness of doping allegations, you better be damn sure of your facts Mr. LeMond.  You are the first to sue based on baseless allegations.  You of all people should understand the damage you can do by lobbing these type of grenades.

Oops I did it again

Well, it looks like our Boy Scout has gotten himself into trouble again.  Tyler Hamilton has retired after testing positive for the steroid DHEA.  My first thought was confirmation that the Boy Scout image I believed for so many years was actually a ruse.  Then I read his reason for the mishap.

Mr. Hamilton says he took an over the counter herbal supplement that contained the banned substance.  Then he let us know about his family history, his grandmother’s suicide.  Take the family history combined with the way his life has gone sideways since his 2004 Olympic gold medal and you have a good story.  I actually found myself nodding in belief.  Then I thought.

“Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.”

I waited to post until I read a post from Dan over at Rant Your Head Off.  Dan has forgotten more about doping than I’ll ever know.  Dan quite literally wrote the book on doping in sports. What I do know is DHEA is pretty fay up the steroid cascade.  A building block that can be used if you are not on the straight and narrow.  If you are not a Boy Scout.  

So for now, I will not buy into the Hamilton saga.  I find it hard to Believe.  If true, I find it disgraceful to use family tragedy to build sympathy for cheating.  So to avoid the downward spiral that thinking about Tyler can cause, I’ll take a pass and focus on today’s Amstel Gold race.

Summer Book Review

Summer is generally a time for escape. For confirmation, look at the typical line-up for movie goers. Action/Adventure films are generally released in the summer while serious Oscar contenders are released towards year-end. Barnes and Noble will greet you with shelves full of brain candy moving the more serious works of literature towards the back.

I can’t say I wasn’t a little concerned when my copy of Dope: A History of Performance Enhancement in Sports from the Nineteenth Century to Today arrived. I am a big fan of the author, Dan Rosen and his blog so I knew it would be well researched and well written. Would my brain be ready? Would it come off like a medical textbook?

I put the book aside until the Tour was over. Not for any of the above concerns but I was enjoying the Tour and did not want to be reminded of the darker side of the sport. So it waited until the Monday after Carlos Sastre crossed the line in Paris.

What I found was an engaging story that took me through the history of doping in sports. All sports, not just cycling. Some of the stories, I knew some I didn’t. Throughout, Dan told me enough science to allow me to understand the story. Never more.

Dan shows us how doping was originally encouraged by governments and governing bodies. Even as testing came into play, official counter measures were put into place to circumvent the tests. As the war raged on, governing entities turned a blind eye to any practices in the ultimate “Don’t ask Don’t Tell” policy. Finally, most organizations have taken up the fight. What is more astonishing is how recently we have come from empty platitudes against doping to where we sit today.

Dan tells us all this in a non-judgmental manner that allows us to form our own opinions. Heck, even Dick Pound has his good points. The story is well told and well documented.

Forgetting what I said at the beginning of this post, I actually feel the timing is great as the Summer Olympics are upon us and we are already seeing reports of altered passports of gymnasts and other formalized slights of hand that tells me we still have a long way to go.

This book is a must read for any sports fan, not just cyclists. If you enjoy professional sports, Olympic sports, or just fair play, you will not be disappointed in the time spent reading Dope. My only negative is Dan used a photo of my pecs for the cover of his book without my permission.

After a little reflection, I will give this year’s Tour a B+

This was tough.  There were plenty of “A” moments but on the whole, I think I’ll stick to the B+.  Here is my quick breakdown.

Course. This year showed some inspiration on behalf of the ASO. Flat stages were never really flat, mountains were challenging and given the exhausted state of the peloton, I think the course tested everyone from sprinters to climbers. Grade A

Competitiveness.  At a late stage, having six riders within a minute of the lead was very exciting.  The only improvement I could wish for is to have the final time trial go to the wire.  Picky, Picky.  Grade A- 

Doping. This was handled appropriately.  Cases were handled in a way that demonstrated the importance of a clean race without overwhelming the race itself.  The withdrawal of two sponsors (BarloWorld, Saunier Duval) created some distraction however. Grade C-

I am encouraged by the next generation of cyclists who are poised to take this sport into the future.  Looking at the list of White Jersey contenders in addition to Alberto Contador leaves me with a good feeling regarding the future.

Cobra accused of having venom in his veins

Italian climbing sensation, Ricardo Ricco, has been expelled from the Tour de France and accused of doping.  The news was broken by the official publiciation of the French Anti-Doping Agency (ALFD), L’Equipe.

In response to the largest test of this year’s Tour, the entire Saunier Duvalteam has withdrawn from racing and has suspended its racing operations until further notice.

As an interesting sidenote, Cycling news is reporting that the brand of EPO that Rico is accused of using is called Micera and manufactured by Swiss based Roche. Micera has the longest half-life of all FDA-approved erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) — up to 6 times longer than darbepoetin alfa and up to 20 times longer than epoetin. Currently, there is no validated test for Micera from WADA.

Cyclingnews has a brief interview with Michael Audran on the topic.

Moving on

Time waits for no one.  While I still feel a void left by the CAS ruling, I need to look forward to the sport I love.  Cycling is preparing to host the greatest event on the calendar.  The Tour de France.  Cycling is bigger than any one person regardless if that person is Floyd Landis or Christian Prudhomme.  So we move forward looking for the best in the sport out of the ashes of the worst.

So how is the race going to shape up?  Well, to call it wide open is an understatement. With no previous Tour winner in the race (I know what I am saying), the race is up for grabs.  Some may think that will yield an exciting race, I feel the odds point towards the opposite.  No rider has enough of an advantage over another rider to take the race.  therefore, you will probably see most of the GC guys riding not to lose as opposed to riding to win.

I do not criticize any rider for this strategy.  Cycling may be the last true sport where the athletes are not entertainers first and sportsmen second.  I can’t say that about the big sports here in the US.  These men are paid to win and they should race to their strengths.  That means Cadel Evans needs to ride each stage worried about the overall, not the stage victory.  This Tour may have a podium with no stage winners.

The top step of the podium is a very interesting question to ponder.  Here is my take.  I don’t know.  My pick?  Cadel has the highest probability of winning.  He will probably win due to the faults of others as opposed to anything he does.  Let me break down the short list of the Yellow Jersey contenders. I’ll put them in my projected order of finish

Cadel Evans. His greatest strength is he is good across the board.  Good climber, good time trialist, good all around rider.  His weakness is he is good across the board.  Not great.  He also will have one of the weaker teams among the contenders.

Denis Menchov. If you ask me to pick a winner in the “someone other than Cadel Evans” category, I’ll go with Menchov.  His strength is he looks and feels like a real GC rider.  His weakness is he always finds a way to have a real bad day.  In the Tour, this is 100% fatal (except in 2006).  This year, he may have an opportunity to recover since there may be others with bad days.

Carlos Sastre. I love Carlos.  He seems to be a real nice guy. The George Hincapie of GC contenders.  Strength is he is the best climber of the bunch.  His weakness is more than his time trialling.  He just can’t seem to deal the killer blow.  Is he too nice for his own good?  Look at past Tour winners.  Nice is usually not the first word used in the description.

Alejandro Valverde. The guy used to have a nick name of Invincible.  Now I would add brittle.  His strength is he is the most talented rider in the peloton.  He also has a very strong team.  His weakness is he finished only one tour.  Last year he was 6th.  I don’t think he has the staying power of a three week stage racer.  Neck down champion.  Neck up a great classics rider.

The rest of the bunch are also rans.  Guys like Damiano Cunego and Kim Kirchen will make noise, maybe win a stage or two but will not challenge for the overall.  If I had to pick a winner from left field, I would pick Frank Schleck.  The reason beyond heart is that most of the best talent beyond the top four is pledged to those top four.  Guys like Yaroslav Popovych are fully pledged to their leader.  They will kill themselves for their team and thus remove themselves from contention.  Frank is protected and may stay protected long enough to take over as team leader should Sastre falter.  The odds are long, very long against Frank.  Given the right circumstances….