After a little reflection, I will give this year’s Tour a B+

This was tough.  There were plenty of “A” moments but on the whole, I think I’ll stick to the B+.  Here is my quick breakdown.

Course. This year showed some inspiration on behalf of the ASO. Flat stages were never really flat, mountains were challenging and given the exhausted state of the peloton, I think the course tested everyone from sprinters to climbers. Grade A

Competitiveness.  At a late stage, having six riders within a minute of the lead was very exciting.  The only improvement I could wish for is to have the final time trial go to the wire.  Picky, Picky.  Grade A- 

Doping. This was handled appropriately.  Cases were handled in a way that demonstrated the importance of a clean race without overwhelming the race itself.  The withdrawal of two sponsors (BarloWorld, Saunier Duval) created some distraction however. Grade C-

I am encouraged by the next generation of cyclists who are poised to take this sport into the future.  Looking at the list of White Jersey contenders in addition to Alberto Contador leaves me with a good feeling regarding the future.

Sastre wins yellow

The yellowjersey either lifts you or breaks you.  For Sastre, he turned in a strong performance on Saturday.  Today’s performance made clear the Strategy of team CSC on Wednesday when Sastre attacked his own teammate of L’Alpe.  Sastre had the better chance to to time trial to victory than Frank Schleck.  I was asking myself if Schleck was that tired or did he drop back to provide a target for Sastre once Menchov and Kohl knocked him off the podium.  Probably not since once he was in Sastre’s sights, he didn’t stay there too long.

I’ll have to disagree with Paul Sherwen that Sastre rode an unbelievable time trial.  While it was strong, Sastre placed where he normally places.  I think it was Cadel who showed either the effects of defending his jersey in the mountains or the weight of yellow.  Cadel should have put in a top 5 performance.  His performance should have been on par with Christian Vande Velde which would have put him within 5 seconds of yellow.  At that point, things would have gotten very interesting.

I’ll lean towards the latter reason, yellow weighing heavily.  Take a look at Cadel losing his temper in a post stage interview.

Versus on the web

Here is another interesting interview with Garmin-Chipolte’s Jonathan Vaughters.

Versus puts content online

Versus which has really begun to try to embrace Web 2,0 to broaden it’s reach, is making some content available online such as this interview with Christian Vande Velde.

Mano a mano and mano a mano

In the game of musical chairs for the Tour podium, it seems that Christian Vande Velde was the first out when the music stopped.  Tomorrow, we’ll see two more retired.  In my opinion, Bernhard Kohl will be next but who will be last to the exit door?

Look for two races within the time trial.  The first is to sort out first and second.  Sastre vs. Evans.  Cadel is spotting the Spaniard more than a minute and a half.  Too much?  The second race will be for the third step on the podium  This is between Frank Schleck and Denis Menchov.  Menchov is too far (2:39) from Sastre to threaten him for one of the top two but the Russian sits just 1:15 behind Frank. 

My prediction? 1) Evans 2) Sastre 3) Menchov.  While My heart has the two CSC boys first and third, I just can’t bank on that.

Sorry for the bad pun.

Something from our useless trivia department

I may not remember to pick up milk on my way home from work but I am the partner of choice in Trivia games.  And cycling trivia is my favorite category.  So, when looking at today’s stage finish in St. Etienne, I flashed back to the Time Trial in St. Etienne back in 2005.  I remember that vividly since my wife and I were in Paris on that day and we watched the time trial with a small group that included Dave Zabriskie.  Remember, Dave Z. crashed out of that tour on the Team Time Trial.

My first memory was the horrific time trial ridden by Mickel Rasmussen that year.  It was like seeing a bad accident on the side of the road.  I was hard to watch but even harder to not watch.

Then I thought about Saturday’s TT.  How did our protagonists do that day.  Take a look.

1 Lance Armstrong (USA) Discovery Channel (46.4 km/h)     1.11.46
2 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team                         0.23
3 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) T-Mobile Team                1.16
4 Bobby Julich (USA) Team CSC                             1.33
5 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC                               1.54
6 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems               2.02
7 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto                       2.06
8 George Hincapie (USA) Discovery Channel                 2.25
9 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne  2.51
10 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne  3.05
11 Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr) Discovery Channel              3.09
12 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC                           3.10

It seems that Cadel finished 1 minute 4 seconds ahead of Sastre.  Given that he is currently 1 minute 34 behind, what does that say.

I know, the profile is completely different the 2005 course was much hillier thus playing to Sastre’s strengths.

Compared to 2008.

For you Evans fans, there are a hundred reasons why this means nothing.  For Sastre fans, there are probably a hundred reasons this means everything.  For me, this means one thing.  It’s going to be fun to watch.

Epic Battle

Today showed why cycling is a team sport.  We saw that a strong rider with a weak team is at a distinct disadvantage to a rider who may be weaker but is surrounded by a strong team. 

Team CSC destroyed Cadel Evan’s support on the Col de la Croix-de-Fer.  Then in a three pronged attack, Carlos Sastre leapt forward and the two Schleck brothers picked on Evans like school yard bullies.  The younger Schleck kept Evans from settling into a rhythm where he could focus on bringing Sastre back.

It was interesting to hear Garmin Chipolte’s Matt White disagree with CSC’s strategy saying that a constant tempo on the Croix-de-fer was not hurting Cadel.  Then we watched CSC deploy a variable speed strategy on L’Alpe d’Huez. 

 Andy Schleck showed why he is being tapped as the next Tour phenom by dancing around the world’s best cyclist like a moth circling a flame. 

Alas, it may not be enough since Saturday will swing the advantage back to Cadel who is a strong time trialist and in a TT, you don’t need a team.

Break out the iPod

We have the ultimate game of musical chairs about to start.  Three chairs and 6 players.  Sunday both whittled down the number of contenders and compacted those with a chance.  Forty nine seconds separate the top six players with less than a week to go.

Three stages are left that will sort out who stands on the podium and what step they will occupy.  Cadel Evans still holds most of the cards with a long (53km) time trial on Saturday.  Look for CSC and maybe Gerolsteiner to try to remove some of those cards by putting serious time into Evans on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Is having two riders in the top 6 a blessing or a curse?  With Schleck in Yellow, Sastre needs to plan his attempt to hurt evans carefully.  Frank Schleck can’t be collateral damage.  Is Riis ready to put all his cards on Schleck and ask Sastre to put his Tour hopes on the shelf?

Denis Menchov is the only one who is not forced to be too agressive over the next two days. he is 30 seconds behind Cadel and probably would like a little time but not the big chunks the others need.  Look for him to continue to take advantage of the labor of others.

Can Kohl and Vande Velde stay in this rarefied air?  Why not, they have lasted this long.  Here is hoping for no bad days.

Cobra accused of having venom in his veins

Italian climbing sensation, Ricardo Ricco, has been expelled from the Tour de France and accused of doping.  The news was broken by the official publiciation of the French Anti-Doping Agency (ALFD), L’Equipe.

In response to the largest test of this year’s Tour, the entire Saunier Duvalteam has withdrawn from racing and has suspended its racing operations until further notice.

As an interesting sidenote, Cycling news is reporting that the brand of EPO that Rico is accused of using is called Micera and manufactured by Swiss based Roche. Micera has the longest half-life of all FDA-approved erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) — up to 6 times longer than darbepoetin alfa and up to 20 times longer than epoetin. Currently, there is no validated test for Micera from WADA.

Cyclingnews has a brief interview with Michael Audran on the topic.

Time to check in with my predictions

Coming out of the rest day, I looked to take stock in the race leaders to see how they are doing.

Cadel Evans. Wearing yellow at the moment should be a good sign.  My concern here is that his team is showing to be a lot weaker than I thought.  He is easily isolated in the mountains and that in a dangerous situation for the Aussie.  He can afford to give a little time to all his rivals with the exception of Menchov since he is far superior to everyone in the Time Trial.  Watch out though because time lost in the mountains can come in big chunks. I’ll still put him on the top step in Paris but I am less sure of that prediction than I was at the beginning. Chances of victory: Good

Denis Menchov.  Made some mental mistakes that cost him precious seconds.  He sits 57 seconds off Yellow so he’ll need to show some aggression in the Alps.  I would like to see him with a slight lead over Evans heading into the final time trial.  Menchov needs to guard against any aggression creating his signature bad day.  I also don’t think Rabobank can support Denis in yellow too long.  Chances of victory: Fair

Carlos Sastre: CSC is clearly the strongest team among the leading contenders.  Carlos Sastre just can’t seem to deliver a solid blow to the other racers.  I don’t know if he lacks the ability to do it now or the killer instinct.  I don’t see the acceleration he once showed in 2003 on the Plateau de Bonascre.  While he was riding defensively since Frank Schleck was up ahead, he had an opportunity to escape alone and bridge the gap to Schleck where the two could have put serious time into Evans.  He gave what looked like a half hearted try. Time is running out since he will need at least 3 minutes going into the final time trial.  Chances of victory: Poor – Fair

Alejandro Valverde: After completely blowing up on the Tourmalet, Valverde’s chances are slim to none. Time to think of the Vuelta.

As for the long shots, Cunego did not make a peep before being dropped with Valverde on Stage 10.  I expect Damiano to take a shot at redemption on L’Alpe.  Kim Kirchen is really making a name for himself as the best of the rest.  He led in both the points and overall classifications by showing he is a very strong rider.

Frank Schleck is having a great tour.  He showed us his Achilles heel with a very weak time trial losing a huge amount of time ( 2:14) over a short 29km. He will not be given much room to break away in the Alps and I don’t think he has the acceleration to break free on his own.  If CSC decides to dedicate themselves to him, he may stand a chance to get time.  Then he has to ride the TT of his life.  A lot of “ifs” for a real shot at the top step.  He has a very good shot at 3rd.

I’m not going to give much press to Ricardo Rico.  He has shown he has tremendous talent as a climber.  A top eight finish is probable.

Finally, Christian Vande Velde is having an unbelievable Tour.  Garmin is getting paid back their entire investment in just one race.  I hope he can hang on through a tough final week and get a shot at the podium.  Will midnight strike for this Cinderella in the Alps?  Here is someone who is hoping it does not.

I’ve given you five names for three steps.  The fight for each step is going to keep me rivited.